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Count Room2026 local elections
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Projection

Provinces count at different speeds, so the raw national share leans towards the provinces that are furthest along. This projection scales each province up to all of its voting districts, keeps its current party shares, and adds them back together. The range shows how far that could move if the uncounted districts vote differently from the counted ones. It is arithmetic on the count, not a forecast of the final result. How it works.

Province data as of

National share: counted vs projected

  • ANC31.7% → 31.1% (−0.6)
    90%: 30.0%–32.0%
  • DA24.1% → 24.6% (+0.5)
    90%: 23.4%–25.6%
  • MKP9.4% → 9.2% (−0.2)
    90%: 8.6%–9.9%
  • EFF6.2% → 6.2% (0.0)
    90%: 5.7%–6.7%
  • ActionSA5.1% → 5.7% (+0.6)
    90%: 4.9%–6.4%
  • IFP5.0% → 4.9% (−0.1)
    90%: 4.4%–5.4%
  • VF Plus3.0% → 3.1% (+0.1)
    90%: 2.6%–3.5%
  • SACP2.5% → 2.4% (−0.1)
    90%: 2.0%–2.7%
  • PA2.0% → 2.0% (0.0)
    90%: 1.7%–2.3%
  • ATM1.0% → 1.0% (0.0)
    90%: 0.7%–1.3%
  • Independents0.5% → 0.5% (0.0)
    90%: 0.3%–0.8%
  • SDP0.5% → 0.5% (0.0)
    90%: 0.4%–0.8%
  • RTC0.1% → 0.0% (0.0)
    90%: 0.0%–0.0%
  • Other9.0% → 8.9% (−0.1)
    90%: 8.3%–9.4%

Shift is in percentage points. 3,000 simulations; the same data always gives the same range. For parties under about 1%, the range is skewed upwards (see method).

Projected weight by province

Each province's share of national valid votes: counted so far (ring) and projected at full count (dot). Provinces with more districts still to report gain weight.
  • Eastern Cape96% in
    13.3% → 12.0% · 3.30m → 3.45m votes
  • Free State98% in
    6.0% → 5.3% · 1.49m → 1.52m votes
  • Gauteng73% in
    20.2% → 23.9% · 5.02m → 6.86m votes
  • KwaZulu-Natal89% in
    20.8% → 20.2% · 5.17m → 5.78m votes
  • Mpumalanga95% in
    8.3% → 7.6% · 2.06m → 2.17m votes
  • Northern Cape100% in
    3.2% → 2.8% · 804k → 805k votes
  • Limpopo84% in
    9.4% → 9.6% · 2.32m → 2.76m votes
  • North West87% in
    6.0% → 6.0% · 1.50m → 1.72m votes
  • Western Cape87% in
    12.7% → 12.6% · 3.14m → 3.61m votes

Projected valid votes: 28.7m (counted so far: 24.8m). The IEC lists only each province's top 13 parties; for 7 parties we estimated their votes in provinces where they were folded into "Other" (169k votes in all).